What Would a War Between Russia and NATO Look Like? We can hope that the leaders of the world's great powers will take care over the coming year with the vast stockpiles of weapons that they control. In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine, starting the largest clash in Europe since World War II. B-52H Stratofortress conducts a flight test of hypersonic missile the AGM-183A, California, 2020, US Air Force personnel conduct cyber operations at Warfield Air National Guard Base, Maryland, 2017, A SpaceX rocket carrying satellites for the US Air Force launches from Kennedy Space Centre in Florida, 2019, Dong Feng 17 missiles equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle, Beijing, 2019, US Air Force flight test of hypersonic missile the AGM-183A, California, 2020, The secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure. Yet the Obama administration has been reluctant to provide more robust support, determined, it seems, to avoid the potential for a proxy war with the Russians. It remains unlikely that any of these disputes will develop into a global conflict, although the Ukraine War already has some aspects of great power war. In late September, all sides agreed to withdraw tanks and heavy artillery from Ukraine's eastern front. And Russian officials have voiced support for Russian-speaking minorities, raising the specter of future agitation. The Biden administration and its allies in Europe have taken extraordinary care with the risks of escalation, but Washington does not hold all of the cards and either Kyiv or Moscow might become willing to accept the risk of a wider conflict, a conflict that could develop into World War III. Ukraine's anticipated counter-offensive will be like a "big bang," a military expert told The Sun. "We see some very sophisticated air defenses going into those airfields, we see some very sophisticated air-to-air aircraft going into these airfields," Gen. Phillip Breedlove, chief of the U.S. European Command and also the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, said Sept. 28. But modern wars are not toe-to-toe conventional fights; geography, politics and terrain inevitably give one side an advantage. However if every nuclear weapon was detonated at the same time, this is what it'd look like. In our scenario, the Joint Chiefs of Staff argue that the United States has nothing to lose by trying, and in doing so, could attempt to reduce the overall damage of an inevitable second strike. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. Russia's inability to make progress may threaten the stability of the Putin government, inclining Moscow to contemplate dangerous escalation. The strike targets Americas remaining military bases, industry, energy, communications, and transportation facilitiespractically anything that makes 21st-century life worth living. (Eric Lee/BLOOMBERG) Branko Marcetic is a staff . In reality, civilians would know in advance if a nuclear weapon would be potentially detonated, giving some enough time to seek shelter. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin). After an initial burst of interest in the video, the view count didn't increase much until late February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and Putin made remarks alluding to the possible use of nuclear weapons, according to Glaser. Here's what a Russian invasion of Ukraine might look like if it happens According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. "It is good for us to be aware how they fight," said Evelyn Farkas, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, in an interview with Military Times on Sept. 10. Before we begin, we should note that neither of the scenarios are likely to occur in our lifetimes. More broadly, Moscow is signaling a long-term interest in extending its umbrella of anti-access area denial capabilities into the Middle East. . In that quest, he has raised the specter of resurgent Russian military might from Ukraine to the Baltics, from Syria to the broader Middle East. Most importantly, the strike would preserve Washingtons ability to communicate with its nuclear forces. Concerns over the ability of Ukraine to continue the war in the long-term might force Kyiv to take risky steps of its own to break the stalemate. Today, the fleet is split between Kalingrad and St. Petersburg, making it difficult to support a larger fleet. The first is gone and the second is fraying, to the extent that Pyongyang may feel like it has a moment and Seoul may struggle to find the patience to tolerate the antics of its neighbor. Over the past several months tensions between Seoul and Pyongyang have grown steadily, with North Korean provocations (often themselves driven by the Kim regime's idiosyncratic and cryptic assessments of the international environment) incurring aggressive rhetorical responses from the South. President Biden speaks during the U.S. Conference of Mayors winter meeting in D.C. on Jan. 21. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. And it's a huge gamble for Moscow, experts say. If your satellites are not communicating and your planners sitting in their underground command bunkers can't be sure what's going on, then it makes it extremely hard to calibrate the next move. ", "Of course, we had no access whatsoever to classified information and often used 'simple' rules when allocating weapons to targets.". With hundreds of new aircraft, tanks and missiles rolling off assembly lines and Russian jets buzzing European skies under NATOs wary eye, it doesnt look like Russias economic woes have had any impact on the Kremlins ambitious military modernization program. What would happen if Russia and the United States got into a nuclear war? "I would not want to speculate how long it would take for humanity to recover," Glaser said. Each location would likely receive a minimum of two nukes in case the first weapon fails to detonate. Russia has a population of 144 million people with a larger percentage of its population in rural areas away from the direct effects of nuclear attack. Instead she's set to lead the U.S., NATO, and Europe down a path of ruin, warns Scott Ritter. Have your say in our news democracy. Who would win a war between NATO and Russia? 'Pouring oil on fire' "That's a world war when Americans and Russians start shooting at each other," said US President Joe Biden earlier this month, vowing he would not deploy American troops to Ukraine under any. So not just the military but societies overall will be a prime target in future conflict.". Fortunately, there is good reason to believe that we will have some warning of war; as was the case along the Ukrainian border, Chinese preparation for conflict would be glaringly visible to everyone concerned. US staged 'limited' nuclear battle against Russia in war game I asked Franz-Stefan Gady, a specialist on future warfare at the IISS, what this would mean for you and me, here on the ground. The war in Ukraine has caused concerns about nuclear war. Not according to Michele Flournoy, who spent years right at the heart of US defence policy. 04/23/2023 07:00 AM EDT. KYIV "After Ukraine, Chechnya," says the Chechen commander fighting on Kyiv's side. While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. Russia's conventional forces are less impressive than its nuclear forces, though there are conventional areas where the Russians excel, including air defense, submarines and electronic warfare. Russia reportedly is expanding its footprint at the Tarus facility. The simulation begins in the context of a conventional conflictRussia fires a warning shot from a base near the city of Kaliningrad in an attempt to stop a U.S./NATO advance. There's nothing ordinary about Cold Response 2020. Tactical nuclear forces are smaller warheads that are used on the battlefield. When Russia is defeated in Ukraine, look to Chechnya U.S. Russia depends on Iranian airspace for its flight corridors into Syria, and reportedly is prepared to support Iranian ground troops aligned with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It really doesnt make much difference, because there would be hardly anyone left in the United States in a position to notice. The second, more devastating countervalue scenario involves an all-out use of nukes to destroy the United States ability to wage war, with the side effect of reducing American society to a pre-industrial level of development. "A crisis like the one we are currently facing often results in miscommunication between parties, exacerbated by the fact that there remain very few active lines of communication between Russia and the U.S./NATO," said Glaser, who is an associate professor at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. Experts inside Russia believe the incursion into Syria, along with Putin's aggressive speech at the United Nations on Sept. 28, signal his long-term interest in becoming a key player in the region. and Russian leaders understand that a full-scale nuclear war would be a civilization-ending event, Drozdenko explains. For comparison, that amount would pay for about three weeks of operations in Iraq and Syria. But while it has moved large amounts. Scientists at Princeton University decided to develop this potential scenario using "independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets. As Russia's Ukraine war intensifies, some warn nuclear escalation is Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. In this image made from video provided by Homs Media Centre, which has been verified and is consistent with other AP reporting, smoke rises after airstrikes by military jets in Talbiseh of the Homs province, western Syria, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2015. A 2020 test of a ground-based intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk facility in northwestern Russia. There will be no return to normalcy or status quo ante. What would that look like? Smoke rises over Talbiseh, a city in western Syria's Homs province, on Sept. 30, marking Russian first airstrikes in the region. Hitler and Stalin carved up Poland in 1939, and after the war the Soviet Union annexed most of the Polish territory it grabbed in 1939, with . It would likely involve more than 3,000 warheads used by both sides, killing well over 100 million Americans and Russians. Video, The secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure, MasterChef Australia host Jock Zonfrillo dies, US principal visits David sculpture after nudity row, Adidas sued by investors over Kanye West deal, UK chip giant Arm files for blockbuster share sale, US bank makes last ditch bid to find rescuer, Pope urges Hungarians to 'open doors' to migrants. Instead of carriers designed for offensive power projection at sea, the Russians are investing in an expanding fleet of submarines that can supplement their nuclear force and, conventionally, threaten an enemy surface fleet in nearby waters such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea or the Mediterranean Sea. Fighting back would mean launching what remained of its ICBMs and any bombers that survived, using them to hunt down remaining Russian nuclear weapons. What Would a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal Look Like? She is referring, of course, to Russia and China, described respectively in the UK government's Integrated Review as "the acute threat" and the long-term "strategic rival" to the West. Russia on June 20 slammed the EU's extension of sanctions over its annexation of Crimea as "blackmail" and vowed it would not be pressured into returning the peninsula to Ukraine. Scientists at Princeton University decided to develop this potential scenario using "independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets." Ukrainian soldiers train outside Kyiv on Feb. 21. It's denial." After . The scenario outlined above is an outlier, but one still within the realm of possibility. Russian military and security forces would seek to remove the current government and state powers in order to insert replace them . The aggression in the Baltics, especially Estonia, which has a large Russian-speaking minority, has been more ambiguous than Moscow's overt operations in Ukraine and Syria. 2023 BBC. The nuclear surprise attack, known as a first strike, would primarily target Americas land-based nuclear arsenal. It's logistically complex. In that effort there are lots of paths to a real war between the United States and Russia. This can massively speed up commanders' decision-making and response times, allowing them to process information far more quickly. On February 24, Russian forces began advancing into Ukrainian territory across several fronts, marking a major escalation in a conflict that started in 2014. The base will help secure Russia's longtime naval support facility at the Syrian port of Tarus, a key to the Russian military's ability to maintain and project power into the Mediterranean. The United States might choose not to retaliate, in order to avoid escalating, or it might well decide to retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons of its own. Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that he understands the peril of nuclear weapons. A review of the military balance in the immediate Baltic theater would seem to give Russia an initial advantage in an aerial campaign against NATO, if Moscow's political objective was to push NATO out of the Baltics. Ukraine Counter-Offensive Will Be Like a 'Big Bang,' Says Military Expert Additionally, there are legally binding contracts between countries, including Russia, that prevent a nuclear war from occurring. Ukrainian soldiers man an anti-aircraft weapon at a checkpoint outside the town of Amvrosiivka, eastern Ukraine, close to the Russian border, Thursday, June 5, 2014. It looked like World War I. MOSCOW -- We winced in our filthy trench as each rocket-propelled grenade whistled overhead and exploded behind us. For example, he said, "one can look at the U.S. Navy as massively superior to the Russian navy. Patchy control Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing. Agustn Montaez, How Russia Could Use Chemical Weapons in Ukraine, Ukraine Will Pay $1 Million to Russian Defectors, How Biden Could Revamp Americas Nuclear Arsenal, Democrats Push for No-First-Use Nuclear Pledge, U.S. Airmen Accidentally Leak Top-Secret Nuke Info, Why the F/A-18 Hornet Is Such a Badass Plane, What You Need to Know About the An-225 Mriya, U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Amanda R. Gray, China Denies 'Remarkable' Expansion of Its Nukes, 6 Tips for Installing Your New In-Ground Pool, Your Privacy Choices: Opt Out of Sale/Targeted Ads, If the United States and Russia were to engage in direct air, land, and sea conflict, the risk of. "We should be able to achieve our objectives and keep the Indo-Pacific, for example, free and open and prosperous into the future. Would a nuclear counterattack achieve anything? Toe to toe, a conventional war between the U.S. and Russia would be no contest. Even prior to this year, Russia and the United States had been abandoning long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, commenced the development of new kinds of nuclear weapons, and expanded the range of circumstances in which these weapons might be used. It might seem like the war in Ukraine is slipping from the radar of the world's media, implying it has reached stalemate and ground to . For defensive purposes, Russian planners would have to recognize the risk of NATO coming to Kiev's assistance. As . Attempting a side-by-side comparisons of the U.S. and Russian militaries is a bit like comparing apples to oranges, many experts say; the Russians have distinctly different strategic goals, and their military structure reflects that. Is climate change killing Australian wine? Lost in all of the discussion of the revitalization of NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a simmering crisis on the alliance's southern flank. "I think we're going to have a very dangerous period within the next five to 10 years when a lot of the downsizing is going to happen. The strike, known as a counterforce strike, would be concentrated away from major population and industrial centers. These five simmering disputes pose the greatest risk of erupting into "World War III" in 2023. aggressively undermining America's 25-year claim to being the only truly global superpower. Plan A shows how a localized nuclear exchange could quickly escalate into a global catastrophe. Their targets are tanks,. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings. "While we were focused on the broader Middle East," she says, "these countries went to school on the Western way of war. "The Russian defense industry is being rebuilt from ruins," said Vadim Kozyulin, a military expert at the Moscow-based PIR Center, a think tank. But over time I think we would be able to degrade it. According to a recent open-source study (not published in a peer-reviewed journal), such an all-out attack would kill as many as 104,241,000 Americans. In our scenario, both sides are devastated with no winners. Before covering the military, he worked as a reporter for the Houston Chronicle in Texas, the Albany Times Union in New York and The Associated Press in Milwaukee. It is not clear . There'd be attempts to "blind" the other by knocking out communications, including satellites, or even cutting the vital undersea cables that carry data. Both countries also subscribe to a policy of assured destruction, meaning any attack on either nation would result in the attackers destruction. All of this at a time when Russian forces are massing on Ukraine's borders, Moscow has been demanding Nato withdraw from some of its member states, and China is making ever louder noises about retaking Taiwan - by force if necessary. Russia-Ukraine war: What would a victory look like now to Putin? As U.S. officials watch that unfold, they are "clearly motivated by concerns that at least locally, Russia has the potential to generate superior forces," said David Ochmanek, a former Pentagon official who is now a defense analyst at the RAND Corp. And looming over the entire U.S.-Russian relationship are their nuclear arsenals. Over the past year tensions between Greece and Turkey have increased substantially, driven in large part by Turkey's assertive foreign policy turn and by the domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime. Russia's electronic warfare capability is also daunting to Pentagon military planners; left unclear is the extent to which Russia could jam the radars and signals intelligence that forms the foundation of the U.S.'s advanced air power. The Ukrainian military was on alert on its easter border with Russia on Thursday amid reports that separatist forces launched attacks on a border crossing near the village of Marinyvka. About 100 yards across . Leaked papers reveal reality behind Ukraine war propaganda and it's Fires generating soot could block sunlight, possibly for decades, causing global cooling and shortening growing seasons, causing worldwide food insecurity.. March 22, 2014, 5:11 AM PDT. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an attack that almost immediately resulted in a combination of sanctions and direct military support for Kyiv. Having said that, accidents can happen and disagreements between two seemingly rational parties can and do quickly spiral out of control. ", Yet some see Putin's maneuvers in Syria as some broader geopolitical gambit that aims to secure a deal on Ukraine. All nuclear powers implicitly operate by the principle of assured destructiona nuclear attack on them guarantees a devastating response. If China attacks Russia, it can be assured it will suffer a devastating counter strike. At the same time, a lot of these emerging technological capabilities will not be mature enough to really have an operational impact," he says. What war with Iran could look like Military Times interviewed more than a dozen military experts, including current and former U.S. military officials, about how a conflict might begin and. by TNI Staff Here's What You Need To Know: Russia would need to size its invasion. Russia has deployed a number of Su-30 fighters to Syria, aircraft that are capable of striking ground targets as well as those in the air. Russia itself would certainly suffer deaths in the tens of millions, but in this scenario, a death count seems like a futile means of keeping score. At some point either the Indians or the Chinese might be tempted to solve the problem through escalation, a step that could work as intended, or that could open the door to a much larger and more destructive conflict.
tonyrefail community school staff
what would war with russia look like