wide receiver routes run stats

300 routes run). Which prospects selected in Rounds 2 and 3 project to be steals? Ted Ginn Jr., now a member of the Chicago Bears, ranked as our least versatile route runner of 2019 among qualifying wide receivers. We also needed to decide when to measure receiver separation. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? Interestingly, Thielen ranked 10th-best in targets percentage while Diggs ranked 24th, which might help justify the ADP disparity (11th to Diggs 16th), but its not a given that Kirk Cousins will prefer Thielen to the degree Case Keenum had. For qualifying wide receivers, the overall score correlates with yards per route 00 which I believe is the best conventional stat to measure receiver production -- at 0.76. 25 games played) he ranks 29th in receiving fantasy points per game. As soon as I saw A.J. 1 year ago by Antonio Losada. Well, now we have an answer to those questions and many more. Last year, Still averaged 1.29 YPRR, Johnson 1.56. jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_3').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_3', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But it is interesting to know, and it is useful in making predictions. Regular-season passes of 5 air yards or less. If a completion occurs, the receiver is credited with the marginal difference. But if we use each players TPRR and Y/T from last year, Stills projection stays at 1.45, while Johnsons rises to 1.74. Next Gen Stats maven Mike Band crunches the numbers on seven crucial Super Bowl LVII matchups. For example, if there is a cornerback covering a receiver and a safety deep above him who matches the receiver's pattern much more than any other receiver, that receiver is credited with extra attention. Do you have a blog? By no means am I suggesting that yards per route run is the only indicator of future success for a wide receiver in the NFL, but it is an integral piece of the puzzle. Part of this effect might be due to scheme, but unfortunately scheme and signal-caller overlap too much to parse those effects apart. It makes sense intuitively, as the more routes you run, the more targets you have available to you. Here are the top-five seasons since 2017: The top-rated players mostly match our intuitive sense of great receivers, but there are more concrete ways of determining the usefulness of metrics. I came into this article with the belief that the rate of yards per route run during a wide receivers rookie season was a fairly strong indicator for future success, but I wanted to take a deep dive to really be sure. For the best in the game, these plays will occasionally pop for huge gains because of their elite speed and run-after-catch ability. After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. They won't know it's a hitch until it's a hitch -- if the route is run well. -- Mike Band, Next Gen Stats Analyst. Find out more. He saw significant time in games sporadically throughout the year. This route is a little easier to explain, primarily because of one infallible truth: Everyone loves the long ball. His reception total was also the most in the NFL on go routes (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route). I believe this is because PFF includes passing plays called back due to offensive penalties in the number of routes run by each wide receiver. We found the shape of the routes aligned with our expectations of route paths; no egregious model predictions seem apparent. Justin Blackmon was in the same boat as Jones in that he only played in four games. What is also encouraging is the three components of RTM generally do not correlate with each other. Latest on Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN Now, by definition, if yards per target is less sticky than yards per route run, than targets per route run has to be the stickiest. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. To predict a receivers future yards per target, we use only 28% of his prior yards per target average. Since 2018, ESPN has introduced pass-rush, run-stop, pass-block and run-block player metrics. One interesting insight from the adjustments is that quarterbacks have a large effect on the openness of receivers at pass arrival. Oct 25, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Latest on Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN . Those numbers are pretty underwhelming, to say the least. It was far below his 2020 form, which ended in him being one of the five most valuable wide receivers in the NFL, according to PFF WAR. Real-time route classification enables us to contextualize the passing game in new ways. On the other hand, Davante Adams only achieved .96 yards per route run during his rookie year but has blossomed into one of the top dynasty wide receiver assets. For example, if the tracking data indicates a pass will be completed 75% of the time and the receiver actually catches the pass, he is credited with plus-0.25. As were using air yards the vertical yards on a pass attempt relative to the line of scrimmage this bucket includes passes behind the line of scrimmage. Here, we see that Y/T is not very sticky. Brown's 2019 season was buoyed by his ability to generate yards after catch despite a mediocre Catch Score, and that Cooper Kupp's 'amazing 2021 season did not rely on any one specific ability but was consistently solid across all three components: Here are the top-five seasons in YAC Score since 2017: The top-five Catch Score seasons include who we might expect and then Marvin Jones Jr. Jones had an amazing season for the Lions in 2017, with 1,101 yards and a league-leading 18.0 yards per catch. Playing with Drew Brees a former Super Bowl MVP who holds the NFL record for highest career completion percentage, most career passing yards and most career passing touchdowns certainly doesnt hurt. He was historically productive in 2019, in large part because he is excellent in the short game on routes like the cross (a.k.a. Receivers like Thomas and Beckham run them well, and to great success. The resulting weights tell us a lot about the importance of the three skills. All three components generally work the same way. Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 Season + > 250 routes run during rookie year w/ at least 20 targets, Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 season w/ at least 20 targets during rookie year (no minimum route run threshold). HaSS layers height into the traditional speed score equation by also dividing the player's height by the average wide receiver height: 73.0 inches (6'1") or average tight end height: 76.4 . This chart helps hammer that point home. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? Advanced stats like depth of target, separation window and completion probability provide greater insight, but they still leave out an important factor. 38) Yards Per Route Run. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? Still, it's encouraging to have a strong correlation with real-world production. Here's a visualization of route paths sorted by our predicted route type: For training purposes, the tracking data for the wideout model has been normalized such that all the pass catchers are to the left of the quarterback, with the rationale being that the route paths are symmetrical. Find out who the leaders are in standard scoring formats and see which players are available in your fantasy football league. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. While thats not a great stat line, it is a pretty good stat line for a player who was still only getting about 20 snaps per game. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards and set an NFL record for receptions in 20191 on the way to winning Offensive Player of the Year that Mike Thomas might not be an elite receiver? With our new route-classification model, we can evaluate which receivers are essentially the most predictable -- or different from the average. Sports Info Solutions' charting allows us to break down receivers by their routes -- seeing which routes they run most often, and at which they are the most effective. Another interesting feature of short-target SOE is that a players ability to consistently get open on short throws appears to be mostly nonexistent. And that makes sense, at least to me. He finished in the top 20 in deep targets and red zone targets, but outside the top 30 in numerous stats; including an 18.8-percent target share (No. The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees, Aug. 10, 2020, However, he finds himself atop this list because of his league-leading 396 receiving yards and five touchdowns on go routes, which came as a result of 13 receptions and a 4.6 percent catch rate above expectation on such routes. The intermediate SOE leaderboard includes seasons from receivers like Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Danny Amendola, Cooper Kupp and Adam Humphries, all of whom are generally regarded as skilled route runners. window.PLAYERCARDS_CONFIG={affiliateCode:"fpros_cards"}; This FantasyPros staff member is an excellent contributor to our site who brings excellent analysis and content. For each, a benchmark is set based on the context and dynamic inner workings of the play. In those six games, Beasley caught 21 passes for 210 yards. Since the most interesting routes to analyze are those that earned a target, there are two obvious points in a play to focus on: the moment the ball leaves the QBs hand and the moment the ball arrives at the receivers location. How can a pass catcher win vs. press? Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator. AVG . Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. Basically, Bell is playing almost a full quarter per game more than the next-closest running back. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. In other words, YPRR already incorporates Yards per Target, but it adjusts that statistic for Targets Per Route Run. If you are simply a box score watcher, nothing about Chris Godwins rookie season would have gotten you excited. If you are looking for the raw data behind this article, do not hesitate to reach out. For reasons that will become evident in a moment, the far right column lists each players routes per team pass attempts in 2014. Regular-season passes greater than 15 air yards, minimum of 30 targets. These include route type, depth of route, coverage type (Cover 3, Man 2 and so on), position at snap (wide, slot, tight, backfield), distance from sideline, time after snap, down/distance/yard line and whether or not the play featured play-action. Totals Per Game. I wanted to then break this down not only by the total number of wide receivers that fell into this bucket, but also by the wide receivers who ran at least 250 routes during their rookie campaign. If we can establish the probability of a catch of a typical receiver, given all the contextual details of a pass route, including route type, depth, coverage and many other variables, we can set a benchmark of expected "openness" agnostic to the ability of the receiver to get open. Thomas wins the yardage battle between the two (382 to 318), helping us find some separation between a couple of receivers that are incredibly dangerous when running shallow routes over the middle. One way to try to answer the question is to look at how well a receiver creates and maintains separation from a defender. Its not very sensitive to outliers, which makes it sticky. An interesting note is how close a call it was between Thomas and Ridley for the top spot in the rankings, which should excite Falcons fans about the potential of the former Alabama star. As a general rule, however, separation and value are decoupled on short passes. [deleted] 2 yr. ago. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks from Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. will certainly allow you to drill down and begin to cross off several variables when projecting future performance. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses its newly launched Expected Return Yards model to identify the top 10 returners of the 2022 regular season. So, what can we do with this information, and why should we care? The resulting lists have reasonably strong face validity players at the top of the leaderboards tend to be widely regarded as good route runners suggesting SOE could be useful as a descriptive metric. Deep targets (at least 15 air yards) are the most valuable in football on a per-play basis, but theyre also the throws with the tightest windows. [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. The purpose of the metrics is not solely to rank receivers from best to worst; the goal is to describe and explain how a receiver is -- or isn't -- able to produce yards. While sixteen of the wide receivers saw at least 80% of their teams passing snaps [6]Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. For Hopkins, 125 of his 257 came after the catch. Making the right read and extending the play plausibly are two big reasons for this. Measuring separation at the time of the throw punishes teammates with great chemistry. The receiver is credited (or debited) for the yardage beyond (or below) that benchmark, rather than the raw yards after catch gained. Who were the best-performing wide receivers by route type? In his second season as a pro -- and first in head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense -- the Cardinals' Christian Kirk ranked as the most versatile route runner of the 2019 season. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. In the tables above, I am referring to hit rate as any wide receiver that achieved WR1 (top-12 in PPR formats) status in a given season in his career. Backs typically run swing routes, check downs and screens, which don't require excellent route-running skills but do rely on yards after catch for success. There are always going to be outliers on both ends of the spectrum for every statistic and measurable. The table below combines our more descriptive NGS receiving metrics with the results of our Route Recognition model. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. Last month, we revealed a new set of rushing metrics derived from the ability to calculate Expected Rushing Yards. Julio Jones has ranked first in yards per route run in four of the past five seasons, and top-five in each of the past five seasons. With year-to-year R-squared values of around 0.3, these three metrics are the most stable existing metrics that measure wide receiver performance. Davante Adams, Packers (6-1, 215 pounds) Adams, 28, came back from an injury-curbed season to light it up as big-time scorer again in 2020 setting a career high . jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_5').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_5', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); and Johnson at 1.58 YPRR. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? How do we know which is which? His 207 yards gained on post routes ranked sixth in the league, and he was one of only two receivers to break 200 yards on less than 10 receptions on post routes in 2019 (the other was DeVante Parker, who ranks second in this grouping). On its face, that seems like an outrageous question. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? Follow Mike on Twitter @MBandNFL. TD. Beasley spent nearly all of his time in the slot, and as a result, his playing time was tied to the health of Miles Austin. With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! And compared to Atlantas Julio Jones a receiver whose natural talent and skill set are rarely questioned Thomas comes out ahead on both our separation and value metrics. Only wideout routes are included (i.e., players aligned wide, in the slot or tight): How often a pass catcher runs a route can give us insight into strategy and tendencies at the league-wide, team and individual levels of the game. [2]While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_2').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_2', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); To predict Year N+1 Yards per Route Run using Year N Yards per Route Run, the best fit formula is, N+1 YPRR = 0.843 + 0.474 * Yr N YPRR (R^2 = 0.21). We can study league-wide trends to gain a new understanding of offensive strategy and tendencies, and we can break down and rank individual players by advanced performance metrics. Regular-season passes of between 5 and 15 air yards, minimum of 40 targets. In fantasy football, volume matters much more than efficiency for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Quarterbacks are clearly an essential factor in whether a receiver makes catches and gains yards. As previously discussed, Robert Foster hit those thresholds when it comes to yards per route run during his rookie year, but has yet to find fantasy relevance in the NFL. The model is an xgboost trained with fivefold cross validation and tested on out-of-sample data. To do this successfully, it takes a receiver who can win off the line, cut inside at an angle and catch a bullet from the quarterback for a solid gain. Quarterbacks sometimes can make receivers look good, but sometimes it's the other way around. Brown trails in yards (306 to 282) but posted a better catch rate above expectation (+22.5% to +7.9%), although he saw 14 fewer targets than Thomas. D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. Green (32.8), Julio Jones (30.7), and Tyreek Hill (24.6). Yards per route run is the crown jewel of PFF's advanced stats for wide receivers. This problem vexed me for months, but about a year ago I thought of a way to crack it. How will Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury factor into Sunday's AFC championship rematch between the Chiefs and Bengals? 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? Basic - Offense; Basic - Defense; Directional - Offense; Directional - Defense; By Team; Other. Among the three metrics YPRR, Y/T, and TPRR its Targets Per Route Run thats the most consistent from year to year. Similar to wide receivers hitting one WR1 season during their careers, there is a significant jump when looking at the total number of WR1/WR2 seasons once you incorporate a minimum of 250 routes run during a wide receivers rookie season. Evaluating route types by advanced performance metrics can tell us which routes are the most valuable on a per-target basis, as you can see in the chart below.

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